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针对现有三峡水库蓄水调度尚未考虑预报信息,提出聚类—预报—优化的预报调度模式.以年均发电量最大和年均蓄水位最高为目标,建立了三峡水库优化蓄水模型,并用NSGA-Ⅱ算法优化蓄水调度线.通过对比分析发现,利用前4个月的径流作为预报因子,支持向量机模型(SVM-4)可获得最佳的9月径流量预报结果.若预报9月份来水为丰水月和平水月,目前运用的9月10日优化蓄水方案的效果良好;若预报9月份来水为枯水月,则应将起蓄时间提前至9月1日,这样可提高三峡水库发电量3.43％,蓄满率3.44％.“,”In light of the current impounding operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir has not considered forecasting information,a clustering-forecasting-optimization operation model is proposed.The multiobjective impounding operation model based on the objective functions of the highest annual average generating capacity and impounding water level is established,in which the NSGA-Ⅱ algorithm is used to optimize the impounding operation curves.The results show that the SVM-4 model can obtain the best runoff forecasting in September using previous four month runoffs as the forecast factors.If forecasted runoff in September belong to normal or wet month,the currently used impounding practice has a good efficiency.If forecasted runoff in September is dry month,the impounding time is recommended to be advanced to September 1st and the corresponding hydropower generation could be raised by 3.43％;and the fullness storage rate could be increased by 3.44 ％.