高油价给各国经济带来了多方面的影响和冲击。本文在介绍IPAC-SGM模型原理和构成的基础上,根据2007年国际油价走势,假定三种油价情景测算其对我国经济的影响,结论是尚处在可承受范围内。本文建议抓住时机加快推进产业结构调整和经济增长方式转变,加快解决影响我国石油安全的突出矛盾和问题。 High oil prices have brought various impacts and impacts on the economies of various countries. Based on the introduction of the principle and composition of IPAC-SGM model, based on the international oil price trend in 2007, this paper assumes that the impact of three oil price scenarios on the economy of our country, the conclusion is still within the acceptable range. This article suggests seizing the opportunity to speed up the transformation of the industrial structure and economic growth mode and speed up the settlement of the outstanding contradictions and problems that affect China’s oil security.