论文部分内容阅读
期货市场的价格发现功能,是指在一个公开并且高效的期货市场中,通过买卖形成的期货价格,能够较真实地反映出商品未来价格变化的趋势。用数学解释即,期货价格是未来商品价格的无偏估计。本篇文章想用黄金期货为例,研究黄金期货市场的价格是否是未来黄金价格的变化趋势。本篇文章主要运用单位根、一阶差分检验等方法,并且进行因果检验。
The function of price discovery in the futures market means that the futures price formed through the sale and purchase in an open and efficient futures market can more accurately reflect the trend of the future price changes of the commodities. Mathematically, the futures price is an unbiased estimate of the future price of the commodity. This article would like to use gold futures as an example to study whether the price of the gold futures market is the trend of gold price in the future. This article mainly uses unit root, first-order difference test and other methods, and conduct causal test.