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文章应用协整和格兰杰因果检验等经济计量分析方法,对新疆1978～2006年的产业结构变动与经济增长的关系进行了分析,并利用宏观经济模型测算了产业变动对新疆经济增长的贡献。实证分析结果表明:产业结构变动促进了经济增长,而经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著影响。产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献水平还较低。需要制订有效的产业政策优化调整产业结构,以促进新疆经济的快速发展。
By using the econometric methods such as cointegration and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the relationship between industrial structure change and economic growth in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2006, and uses the macroeconomic model to estimate the contribution of industrial changes to Xinjiang’s economic growth . The result of empirical analysis shows that the change of industrial structure promotes economic growth, while the economic growth has no significant effect on the change of industrial structure. The contribution of changes in industrial structure to economic growth is still low. We need to formulate effective industrial policies to optimize and adjust the industrial structure in order to promote the rapid economic development in Xinjiang.