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研究引起径流变化的主要驱动因子对流域水文水资源与生态相关研究具有重要的指导意义。以典型草原型流域-锡林河流域1970-2014年径流及气象数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendall法、弹性系数法定量分析了气候变化及人类活动对径流变化的贡献程度。结果表明:近45a来锡林河流域年径流量呈显著下降的趋势,在1979、1986和1998年发生突变。1980-1986年人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为46.57%;1987-1998年人类活动对径流增加的贡献率高达91.46%,气候变化的贡献率仅为8.54%;1999-2014年人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为66.16%。整体而言,人类活动是锡林河流域径流变化的主要驱动力。
Studying the main driving factors that cause the change of runoff has important guiding significance for the study of hydrology and water resources and ecology in the basin. Using Mann-Kendall method and elastic coefficient method, the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes was quantitatively analyzed on the basis of runoff and meteorological data from 1970 to 2014 in the typical grassland basin-Xilin River Basin. The results showed that the annual runoff in Xilin River Basin decreased significantly in the recent 45 years, with a sudden change in 1979, 1986 and 1998. The contribution rate of human activities to runoff reduction from 1980 to 1986 was 46.57%. From 1987 to 1998, human activities contributed 91.46% to the increase of runoff. The contribution rate of climate change was only 8.54%. From 1999 to 2014, The contribution rate of reduction is 66.16%. Overall, human activities are the main drivers of runoff in the Xilin River basin.