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在市场经济中,风险可以说是无时不在无所不在。在经济意义上风险是与损失相联系的,而且这种损失多是由于跨时期选择决策不当选成的,而跨时期选择又是与预期或预测相联系的。一般而言,在做经济预测时,首先要选择经济预测的指标,然后分析影响预测指标的先行自变量,并根据自变量和预测指标的关系建立数学模型(当然有时这种数学模型无法表达出来,仅存在于潜意识中)。据此,我们可以大概知道,预测不准或错误的原因可能来自两个方面:一种是客观原因造成的,如构造模型时必须舍弃掉一些次要的影响因素,或自变量的测量不可能精确到一定的程度,因此就必然发生预测误差,一种是主观原因造成的,如构造模型时把本该考虑的影响因素舍弃掉了,这时就会造成很大的误差。据此,我们将与两类不同性质的预期偏差相联系的风险称为客观性风险和主观性风险。其次,根据风险所发生的范围,又可划分为微观风险和宏观风险。
In a market economy, risk can be said to be omnipresent. In the economic sense, the risk is linked to the loss, and the loss is mostly due to improper selection of inter-period selection decisions, which in turn is associated with the expectation or prediction. In general, in economic forecasting, we must first select the indicators of economic forecasting, and then analyze the leading variables that affect the forecasting indicators and establish the mathematical model based on the relationship between the independent variables and the forecasting indicators (of course, this mathematical model can not be expressed sometimes , Only exists in the subconscious). Accordingly, we can probably know that the reason for the inaccurate prediction or error may come from two aspects: one is objective reasons, such as the construction of the model must be discarded some minor factors, or the measurement of independent variables is impossible Precise to a certain degree, so the forecast error will inevitably occur, one is caused by subjective reasons, such as the construction of the model to consider the impact of factors to be discarded, then it will cause a great error. Accordingly, the risks we associate with two types of expected deviations of different nature are called objectivity and subjectivity. Second, according to the scope of the risk, it can be divided into micro-risk and macro-risk.