地下矿产资源开采引起的地面沉降是世界上各矿产资源大国共同面临的一种严重环境问题,我国也不例外。随着世界范围内矿产资源消耗量的急剧增长,这种问题将日益突出。为了尽可能减轻由地下矿产开采引起的地面沉降,对地面基础设施的损害与自然环境的破坏,对地面沉降进行精确预计显得尤为重要。本文首先对国内外地下矿产开采引起的地面沉降主要预计方法的特点及适应性,进行了系统地分析与总结。在此基础上,作者依据各自的适应性,将地面沉降预计方法分为两大类:(1)对地面沉降空间分布规律的预计;(2)对地面沉降时间变化规律的预计。进而,提出了未来地面沉降预计中切实可行的研究方法与内容,主要包括:(1)对具体地质采矿条件下地面沉降规律的预计研究;(2)对地面沉降预计的时空统一问题的研究;(3)地面沉降预计与实地监测的一体化的研究。最后,作者分析了地下矿产开采引起的地面沉降预计前景。 Ground subsidence caused by the exploitation of underground mineral resources is a serious environmental problem that all the major mineral resources powers face in the world. China is no exception. With the drastic increase in the consumption of mineral resources worldwide, such problems will become increasingly prominent. In order to reduce as much as possible the ground subsidence caused by the underground mining, the damage to the ground infrastructure and the destruction of the natural environment, it is particularly important to accurately predict the subsidence. This paper first systematically analyzes and summarizes the characteristics and adaptability of the main prediction methods of ground subsidence caused by underground mining at home and abroad. On this basis, the authors classify the land subsidence prediction methods into two categories according to their respective adaptability: (1) the prediction of the spatial distribution of land subsidence; and (2) the prediction of the variation law of land subsidence time. Furthermore, some feasible research methods and contents are proposed in the future prediction of ground subsidence, including: (1) Predicting the land subsidence regularity under specific geology and mining conditions; (2) Researching on the time-space unified problem of land subsidence prediction; (3) Integrated research on projected land subsidence and field monitoring. Finally, the author analyzes the projected prospects of land subsidence caused by the mining of underground minerals.