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文章以“凯恩斯理论”和“李嘉图等价原理”为立足点,将一国债务水平与该国消费者行为进行关联,把“双赤字”、“双分叉”、“双盈余”及“李嘉图等价”同时纳入研究范畴,通过纠偏LSDV与多重门槛动态面板回归相结合的方式对不考虑债务因素和考虑债务因素两种情况进行了分析与比较,突出了在动态及非线性情况下债务水平对“财政政策-经常账户”关系变化的影响及其变动规律。研究发现:当一国债务水平介于13.21%与74.54%之间时,其财政预算支出与经常账户正相关,“双赤字”(双盈余)假说成立;当债务水平高于74.54%时,两者间虽呈现负相关关系但不显著,符合“李嘉图等价”;而当债务水平低于13.21%时,两者间呈现显著负相关关系,此时会出现“双分叉”。政府可根据本国债务水平所属类别,掌握财政政策与经常账户间关系变化,从而有效实施扩张性、紧缩性或审慎的宏观财政政策。
Based on the principle of “Keynesian theory” and “Ricardo Equivalence Theory”, the article links the debt level of a country with the consumer behavior of the country, and links the double deficit “Double Surplus ” and “Ricardo Equivalence ” are also included in the research category. Through the combination of correcting LSDV and multiple threshold dynamic panel regression, we analyze and compare the two factors, without considering the debt factor and considering the debt factor , Highlighting the impact of the debt level on the change of the relationship between the “fiscal policy-current account” and its changes under the dynamic and non-linear conditions. The study found that when a country’s debt level is between 13.21% and 74.54%, its budgetary expenditure is positively related to the current account. The “double-deficit” hypothesis holds; when the debt level is above 74.54% , Although there is a negative correlation between the two, but not significant, in line with the “Ricardo equivalent”; and when the debt level is lower than 13.21%, the two showed a significant negative correlation between the two will appear “bifurcation ”. The government can master the changes in the relationship between the fiscal policy and the current account according to the type of its own debt level so as to effectively implement the expansionary, constrictive or prudent macro-fiscal policy.