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2015年6月至8月中国股市经过两轮断崖式下跌,引起社会广泛关注和担忧。本次股灾表现出不同以往的异常波动现象,在极短时间内市值损失巨大、频现千股跌停、上市公司大量停牌等。本文认为股灾发生的直接原因是股市被动去杠杆而引发流动性危机,主要原因是市场对经济转型与改革美好预期的崩溃,而更深层次的原因在于制度存在缺陷和制度错配。本文分析了股灾对经济的影响,对消费、投资和金融体系造成的不利影响,但影响有限。最后,针对股灾发生的成因,本文提出建议,如严格控制杠杆,强化协同监管;深化金融改革,建立常态透明的沟通机制,稳定市场预期;建立与我国资本市场发展相适应的制度体系。
From June to August 2015, China’s stock market dropped by two rounds of cliffs, causing widespread concern and concern in the society. The stock market disaster showed unusual fluctuations in the past, in a very short period of time huge market value loss, frequently thousands of shares limit, a large number of listed companies suspended. This paper argues that the direct cause of the stock market disaster is the liquidity crisis triggered by the passive de-leveraging of the stock market mainly due to the market’s collapse of the beautiful expectation of economic restructuring and reform. The deeper reason is that there are flaws in the system and system mismatch. This article analyzes the economic impact of stock market disasters on the consumer, investment and financial system, but its impact is limited. Finally, according to the causes of the stock market disasters, this article puts forward some suggestions, such as strictly controlling the levers and strengthening the coordination supervision; deepening the financial reform, establishing a normal and transparent communication mechanism, stabilizing the market expectation; and establishing a system that suits our country’s capital market development.