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目前,国内外关于动态冗余系统安全性分析的主要方法是Markov模型。对于区域计算机联锁系统,使用Markov模型进行分析时,其状态空间规模较大,致使其建模及求解过程十分繁琐。为了解决这个问题,本文从系统失效的角度建立区域计算机联锁系统动态故障树模型,采用概率近似法求出系统的安全失效概率和危险失效概率,并将所得结果与Markov方法所求指标进行比较。研究结果表明,故障树概率近似法和Markov方法计算结果十分接近,但计算过程简单且对存储量要求小。说明对于低失效率和短维护时间的铁路信号安全苛求系统,采用故障树概率近似法计算有关安全性能指标切实可行,避免了利用Markov方法求解的繁琐过程,为复杂冗余动态系统的安全性分析与计算提供了新的解决方案。
At present, the main method of analyzing the security of dynamic redundant systems at home and abroad is Markov model. For the regional computer interlocking system, when using Markov model for analysis, the state space is large, which makes its modeling and solving process very complicated. In order to solve this problem, this paper establishes a dynamic fault tree model of regional computer interlocking system from the point of view of system failure, and uses the probability approximation method to find out the safety failure probability and risk failure probability of the system, and compares the result with the Markov method . The results show that the fault tree approximation method and Markov method are very close to the results, but the calculation process is simple and less storage requirements. It shows that it is practicable to calculate the relevant safety performance index by using fault tree approximate method for the railway signal safety system with low failure rate and short maintenance time, which avoids the tedious process of solving with Markov method and analyzes the safety of complex redundant dynamic system And computing provides a new solution.