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文章运用H.T.Odum的能值理论和方法,系统化、定量化分析评估了目前玛纳斯县农林牧草业生态经济系统的能量流动,分析了玛纳斯县近10年来的农牧业发展状况,提出了结构调整的必要性。研究结果表明:玛纳斯县1997～2006年间,农牧业系统的净能值产出率呈不稳定趋势,环境负载率呈不断升高的趋势,说明其农牧业生产的环境压力不断增大,目前发展的可持续性较差,玛纳斯县农牧业系统的畜产品产出能值有较大的提高,人工草地种植面积虽逐年扩大,但存在严重的草畜不平衡矛盾,建议农业结构的调整必须与生态环境建设结合起来,形成以水定草,以草定畜为中心的战略调整,加强政府的宏观调控和管理水平。
The article uses HTOdum’s emergy theory and method to systematically and quantitatively evaluate the energy flow of the eco-economic system of agriculture, forestry and husbandry in Manas County at present, and analyzes the development of agriculture and animal husbandry in Manas County in recent 10 years. Put forward the necessity of structural adjustment. The results show that during the period of 1997-2006 in Manas County, the net emergy output rate of farming and animal husbandry system shows an unstable trend and the environmental load rate shows a rising trend, which shows that the environmental pressure of agricultural and livestock husbandry production is constantly increasing Large, the current development of the sustainability of the poor, Manas County farming and animal husbandry system of livestock products output value has greatly increased, although the artificial grassland area has expanded each year, but there is a serious imbalance of grass and livestock, It is suggested that the adjustment of agricultural structure must be combined with the construction of ecological environment to form a strategic adjustment centering on water and grass and grass and stable livestock, and strengthen the government’s macro-control and management.