Quantitative Detection and Attribution of Runoff Variations in the Aksu River Basin

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  Since the flow variations of Aksu River are strongly influenced by climate change and human activities which threat the local ecosystem and its sustainable development, it is necessary to quantify the impact degree of driven factors.Therefore, this study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on the variability of runoff in the Aksu River Basin.The Mann-Kendall trend test and accumulative anomaly method were used to analyse the break points of the flow difference value (FDV) between the upstream and downstream flume stations.The improved slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) method and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were applied to decouple the contribution of each driving factor to the FDV variations.Furthermore, a Pearson correlation analysis was performed to show the relationships among the driving factors and the FDV.The time series prior to the year (1988) of break point was considered the baseline period.Based on the mean annual precipitation and the potential evapotranspiration (PET), the relative impacts of precipitation, PET and human activities on FDV variations as determined by the SCRCQ method were 77.35%,-0.98% and 23.63%, respectively.In addition, the SWAT model indicated that climate factors and human activities were responsible for 92.28% and 7.72% of the variability, respectively.Thus, climate change and human activities showed a similar scale of impact on FDV changes.
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