用于中长期地震预测的地震丛集率方法和预测效能检验:以CSEP计划中国检验区为例

来源 :2014年中国地球科学联合学术年会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:hnyqk
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对南北地震带地区发生的强震进行了系统的回溯性震例研究,并利用“区域技能评分”方法对预测结果进行了效能评估。结果表明,地震“丛集率”方法对南北地震带地区6.5级以上具有较高的预测效能。当变换预测的目标地震震级,统计检验结果显示,对南北地震带地区,最佳预测的目标地震震级为6.5级。进一步考察地震“丛集率”方法的最佳预测时间尺度,对南北地震带地区系统的回溯性研究和利用“区域技能评分”方法检验结果表明,最佳预测时间尺度为5-10年,其对应的评分结果可为较高的0.8以上。研究给出了2013年9月10日的地震“丛集率”分布,结果显示在鲜水河断裂带南段和龙门山断裂带上的“南空段”地震“丛集率”存在低值分布,是未来5-10年尺度强震发生的可能地点。
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