Road Traffic Accidents Prediction Model in China

来源 :2017年世界交通运输大会 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:zx1112220
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
  In China,as in other countries,road traffic deaths are a burden for society.More than 58 thousand people died in road crashes,and approximately 213 thousand are injured annually in China.In 2013,the number of road traffic accidents that happened was 5,987 thousand for the whole nation.To prevent traffic incidents,it is crucial to understand where and how they take place,the change trend in recent years and so on.The aim of this study is to make a change trend analysis in road traffic accidents concerning time and locations within macroscopic traffic accidents data from Yearbook of Road Traffic Accidents in China(2003-2013)using Smeeds Law.The results of this study shows that Smeeds Law clearly represent road traffic accidents prediction model in China.In addition,further studies will turn to analyze microcosmic causes of the traffic accidents.
其他文献
基于分层信息处理思想,运用随机理论框架下的公交路径选择模型,分析出行者在时空维度下的站点选择和公交车选择行为。以从广州市体育中心BRT 站点到东圃镇BRT 站点为例(共8 条直达线路),利用IC 卡数据和车辆报站数据对公交车感知效用函数进行参数标定和检验,结果表明,在对舒适度进行分层处理的情况下,候车时间、搭乘时间、站点舒适度、车内舒适度和搭乘线路经验均对公交路径选择具有显著性影响。
本文首先分析影响公交乘客满意度的因素,发现候车时间长短是公交乘客出行最关心的指标,也是评价服务水平的首要关键因素。基于此,根据乘客和车辆到站的离散分布特征与随机性,依托现实具备的公交车GPS 数据和乘客刷卡数据,应用数理统计的非时齐泊松分布理论,提出乘客候车时间算法。然后按照乘客等车时的心理和情绪变化过程将候车服务水平划分为五个等级,对应0-10 的公交指数。在站点公交指数基础上,进一步利用公交站
To improve the poor performance of automatic incident detection(AID)algorithms under extreme weather in freeway,this paper demonstrated an incident detection algorithm using meteorological parameters
:针对湛江市霞山老城区停车问题突出且停车设施供给有限的现状,有必要系统研究老城区停车系统改善策略,从而有效缓解停车难问题。首先分析老城区的交通及停车现状,探究导致停车难问题的原因。在此基础上构建老城区停车系统改善策略框架,从宏观、中观、微观三个层面分别提出改善策略。
In order to solve the problem that shared bicycles park disorderly in actual operation,this paper proposes a method based on cluster analysis to optimize the distribution of existing shared bicycles l
居民出行是构成城市交通的主要部分,居民出行调查在城市交通规划中占有十分重要的地位。首先介绍了居民出行调查方案的设计思路和具体内容,并根据其数据特点选择采用Access 作为数据库的建立平台。然后介绍了Access 软件的特点并比较了其相对于excel在数据库建立方面的优势。接着详细阐述了数据库中表、窗体和VBA 代码的设计要点,重点介绍了这种数据库的改进优点,最后通过操作步骤说明了该数据库的使用方
The heterogeneous traffic conditions with non lane based traffic flow can be best evaluated by microscopic traffic simulation.In the present study,microscopic traffic simulation software VISSIM is use
This paper put forward the optimization design of intersection from three aspects:channelization optimization design,optimal design of signal timing,and simulation evaluation.Through traffic data inve
In this paper,the infrastructure parameters and pedestrian simulation parameters were collected by the video survey method in the large-scale public space(LSPS),the law of pedestrian arrival and depar
为把握新开通城市轨道对交通出行的影响,对宁波轨道交通1 号线开展了乘客流量和出行调查。结果 显示,轨道交通沿线的部分常规公交和出租车客流显著减少,而轨道乘客中源自常规公交的比例最高。随着轨道新线路的开通,公共交通的出行量进一步向轨道方式集聚,常规公交和出租车客流持续走低,而小汽车出行则平稳发展。研究表明,宁波轨道交通与常规公交、出租汽车之间形成了无效竞争,而对小汽车出行替代有限,这限制了轨道交通缓