【摘 要】
：
水体富营养化已成为全球环境问题之一.研究经济增长与水体富营养化的关系,对协调经济发展与水环境保护具有重要的意义.本文以鄱阳湖为例,利用1978-2008年人均GDP与鄱阳湖水体中TN、TP致据,构建了经济增长-环境质量的回归模型,分析了鄱阳湖水体TN、TP浓度随r均GDP增长的变化趋势及原因.结果表明,鄱阳湖流域经济增长与氮磷排放的关系都具有EKC曲线特征,即氮磷的排放先随经济的增长而增加,达到临
【机 构】
：
中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101
论文部分内容阅读
水体富营养化已成为全球环境问题之一.研究经济增长与水体富营养化的关系,对协调经济发展与水环境保护具有重要的意义.本文以鄱阳湖为例,利用1978-2008年人均GDP与鄱阳湖水体中TN、TP致据,构建了经济增长-环境质量的回归模型,分析了鄱阳湖水体TN、TP浓度随r均GDP增长的变化趋势及原因.结果表明,鄱阳湖流域经济增长与氮磷排放的关系都具有EKC曲线特征,即氮磷的排放先随经济的增长而增加,达到临界值后,则转变为随经济的增长而下降的趋势.当人均GDP达到为8600元/人(以1977年为基期计算)时,鄱阳湖水体中TN的浓度将出现由随经济增长而增加的趋势向随经济的增长而减少的趋势转变;当人均GDP达到为7400元/人(以1977年为基期计算)时,鄱阳湖水体中TP的浓度将出现由随经济增长而增加的趋势向随经济的增长而减少的趋势转变.目前,由于产业结构优化、新的经济增长点的出现与环境政策的影响,鄱阳湖流域的氮磷排放量已出现下降趋势,但为保持都阳湖水质的持续改善,鄱阳湖流域需要进一步优化产业结构,提高环保意识,实现经济与生态的协调发展.
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