建立大坝性状的数学解释模型是实现监测自动化的关键问题之一。本文对大坝变形资料的数学解释模型进行剖析,结合葛洲坝工程二江泄水闸蓄水期及运行初期的沉陷及水平位移资料分析,探讨了在环境原因量与运行效应量之间建立决定论模型及混合位移预报模型的途径。通过与实测资料分析比较,验证所建立的位移预报模型是比较合理可靠的 Establishing a mathematical interpretation model for dam properties is one of the key issues in the automation of monitoring. In this paper, the mathematical interpretation model of dam deformation data is analyzed. Based on the analysis of subsidence and horizontal displacement data during the storage period and initial operation of the Erjiang sluice gate in Gezhouba Dam, a deterministic model is established between the environmental causes and the operational effects And the way of mixing displacement prediction model. By comparing with the measured data, it is reasonable and reliable to verify the established displacement prediction model