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准确可靠预报融雪径流对寒区洪旱灾害的监测及水资源管理具有重要意义。根据尼尔基水库上游季节性融雪产流特点,结合蓄满产流理论,考虑寒冷地区冻土的不透水、蓄水调节、蒸发抑制等作用及冻土融冻期水文特性,构建了耦合度-日融雪模型、径流系数法及新安江模型的分散式融雪径流预报模型,采用1979～1988年的水文气象资料对模型进行了率定,并根据2000～2003年相应资料验证了模型合理性。通过对5个不同时间尺度径流量的模拟与验证结果表明,模型具有较好精度,在研究区具有较强适用性,可为尼尔基水库春、夏两季入库径流预报提供参考。
Accurate and reliable prediction of snowmelt runoff has great significance for the monitoring of floods and droughts in cold regions and water resources management. According to the characteristics of seasonal snowmelt runoff in the upstream of Nierji reservoir, combined with the theory of sediment accumulation, considering the percolation, storage regulation and evaporation inhibition of permafrost in cold region and the hydrological characteristics of frozen soil in thawing period, the coupling degree - the daily melting snow model, the runoff coefficient method and the dispersive snowmelt runoff forecasting model of Xin’anjiang model. The hydrological and meteorological data from 1979 to 1988 were used to calibrate the model, and the model was verified according to the relevant data from 2000 to 2003. Through the simulation and verification of runoff at five different time scales, the results show that the model has good accuracy and strong applicability in the study area, which can provide reference for the runoff prediction of the Nierji reservoir in spring and summer.