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本文在文献[1]、[2]的基础上,进一步应用耗散理论中的多重选择和岔区外敏概念来讨论地震预报问题。指出,在断层平面组合中,由于始裂点的位置不同,会导致后果的重大差异。在立交模式中,深部剪切蠕滑线在哪里发生有一定的随机性,即上部岩石圈中某一发震断层在某一时间内是否有深部剪切蠕滑线与其相交,具有随机选择的性质。关于岔区外敏问题,耗散理论认为,分岔点上外界因素对系统变成新态的途径选择具有很大影响。外界因素的作用会有利于某种途径的选择,特别在分岔点处这种选择的作用要显著放大。对于一个地震,在震源区处于不稳定状态时,外因对震源地方的调制和触发作用是很大的。如果外因的时间规律、空间规律和方向规律是已知的,则可对多重选择进行实际选择,使其可能性范围缩小,进而进行相对确定的地震预报。
Based on the literature [1] and [2], this paper further discusses the earthquake prediction problem by applying the multiple selection in dissipative theory and the concept of outliers in turnout area. Pointed out that in the fault plane combination, due to the different location of the initial crack point, it will lead to significant differences in the consequences. In the interchange mode, where there is a certain randomness in the deep shear creep line, whether there is a deep shear creep line intersecting with a certain seismogenic fault in the upper lithosphere at random, nature. With respect to the problem of the out-of-area sensitivity, the dissipative theory holds that the external factors at the bifurcation point have a great influence on the choice of the system to become a new state. The role of external factors will be conducive to a certain choice of ways, especially at the bifurcation point of the role of this choice should be significantly enlarged. For an earthquake, when the source area is in an unstable state, the modulation and triggering of the external source to the source place is very large. If the temporal, spatial, and directional laws of externalities are known, then the actual choice of multiple choices can be made to narrow the range of possibilities and allow for relatively accurate earthquake prediction.