通过对北京市密云县西田各庄节水型农业示范区水文地质条件的分析，采用地下水资源的多年调节计算和多元回归分析方法，建立了地下水动态预测模型。用此模型预测了２０１０年的地下水动态。结果表明：本地区地下水水位不断下降，按现在的开采水平，到２０１０年地下水水位埋深将为２７．０ｍ。节水灌溉可明显减缓地下水水位的下降 Based on the analysis of hydrogeological conditions of the water-saving agricultural demonstration zone in West Tiangezhuang, Miyun County, Beijing, groundwater dynamic prediction model was established by multi-year adjustment and multiple regression analysis of groundwater resources. This model is used to predict the groundwater movement in 2010. The results show that the groundwater level in this area will continue to decline. According to the current exploitation level, the groundwater table will have a depth of 27.0m by 2010. Water-saving irrigation can significantly slow down the groundwater level