Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

来源 :Journal of Mountain Science | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:bosimao_wang
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Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin(SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1km2 are dominant(87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance also shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-5.521 mm a-1. The glacier total runoff has significantly(p<0.05)increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant(p<0.005) increase during2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant(p<0.001) increase,while the accumulation has no significant(p=0.05)trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, theglacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB. Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of ​​less than 1km2 are dominant (87%) in the SRB. A modified Comment degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961-2050. The comparison between the simulated and measured snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant (p <0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance The glacier total runoff was significantly (p <0.05) increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant (p <0.005) increase during The ablation is projected to significant (p <0.001) increase, while the accumulation has no significant (p = 0.05) trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, the gap area is projected to decrease, and The results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will indicate that the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. and downstream water demands in the SRB.
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