本文基于Nerlove模型,利用我国11个棉花主产区2004-2014年的省际面板数据,运用动态面板GMM估计方法对我国的棉花供给反应进行定量分析。结果显示,棉花供给的价格短期弹性和长期弹性较高,表明棉花价格的大幅波动不利于棉花种植面积的稳定;棉花供给的化肥价格弹性较高,劳动力价格弹性显著,表明化肥价格和劳动力价格上涨是近年棉农植棉积极性下降的重要原因。 Based on the Nerlove model and the panel data of 11 provinces in China from 2004 to 2014, this paper uses the dynamic panel GMM estimation method to quantitatively analyze the cotton supply response in China. The results show that the short-term elasticity and long-term elasticity of cotton supply are high, indicating that the sharp fluctuations in cotton prices are not conducive to the stability of cotton acreage. The price elasticity of cotton supplied by chemical fertilizers is high, and the price elasticity of labor force is significant, indicating that fertilizer prices and labor prices It is an important reason that cotton farmers’ enthusiasm for cotton-planting decreased in recent years.