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在肿瘤学中,观察病人的疗效往往借助于生存曲线来表达和估价。在其它疾病的观察中,如胃十二指肠溃疡、心肌梗塞等,也可以计算它们的复发数,建立与上相符合的一定期限未复发率的曲线图。目前,国内常采用直接法和寿命表法。近期,国外应用一种新的方法,称Kaplan-Meier法。这一方法能利用所有的资料,计算方法简单、迅速,并能笔算。它的图表可以正确地反映出在分析中的每一段时间里病人是生存还是死亡,或是复发还是未复发。此法尤其适合于小样本。但当样本大时,图表显得冗长,这时,可用寿命表法。原理用概率论估计一天又一天的生存率。例一病人第364天尚存活时的第365天生存概率即为第364天和第365天的生存概率相乘之积。
In oncology, the efficacy of observing patients is often expressed and valued using the survival curve. In the observation of other diseases, such as gastroduodenal ulcers, myocardial infarction, etc., their recurrence counts can also be calculated, and a certain period of non-recurrence rate curve consistent with the upper phase can be established. At present, the direct method and life table method are often used in China. Recently, a new method has been applied abroad, called the Kaplan-Meier method. This method can use all the information, the calculation method is simple, rapid, and can be written. Its chart correctly reflects whether the patient was alive or dead, or relapsed or not relapsed at each time in the analysis. This method is particularly suitable for small samples. However, when the sample size is large, the chart becomes redundant. At this time, the life table method can be used. Principles use probability theory to estimate the day-to-day survival rate. The survival probability at the 365th day when the patient is still alive on the 364th day is the product of the multiplication of the survival probabilities of the 364th day and the 365th day.