论文部分内容阅读
以墨西哥西北部雅魁盆地的小麦为例，对根据预报模型估计产量增长的方法进行了效验研究。该盆地是世界上发展中国家小麦温带春灌区环境条件的代表，也是过去３０年中进行小麦研究的主要高投资目标区。１９６８—１９９０年研究期间，小麦产量每年以５７．２（±１２．８）ｋｇｈｍ￣（－２）（ｒ￣２＝０．４９）或１．２７（±０．２６）％（ｒ￣２＝０．５１）的直线增长；然而，产量和生长季节的平均气温都有着显著的变异。为了估计年际间的气候变异，假定品种和管理没有变化的情况下，利用两个产量模型（一个是模拟模型，一个是回归模型）预报了每年气候条件所具有的产量潜力．由于温度微有升高，研究期间预报产量明显地呈直线下降趋势。根据预报产量对盆地的平均产量进行校正以考虑气候变异时，整个产量增长的直线斜率提高到１０３（±１４．８）ｋｇｈｍ￣（－２）年￣（－１）（ｒ￣２＝０．６９）或１．９１（±０．２２）％年－１（ｒ￣２＝０．７８）。把气候变化因素扣除以后，改进作物管理和育种的报酬一直高于盆地实际产量增加所应得的报酬。
Taking the wheat in the Yaque basin of northwestern Mexico as an example, the author conducted an empirical study on the method of estimating the yield increase based on the forecast model. The basin is a representative of the environmental conditions in the wheat temperate spring irrigation areas in developing countries in the world and is also the major high investment target area for wheat research in the past 30 years. During the 1968-1990 study, wheat production was estimated at 57.2 (± 12.8) kghm -2 (r -2 = 0.49) or 1.27 (± 0.26)% (r -2 = 0.51); however, there is a significant variation in both the production and the average temperature during the growing season. To estimate inter-annual climatic variability, the yield potential possessed by each climatic condition is predicted using two production models (one for the simulation model and one for the regression model), assuming no change in species and management. Due to a slight increase in temperature, the predicted output during the study period showed a clear downward trend. When the average yield of the basin is corrected to predict climate variability based on the predicted yield, the slope of the straight line of the overall yield increase increases to 103 (± 14.8) kghm -2 (-2) yr -1 (r 2 = 0). 69) or 1.91 (± 0.22)% yr -1 (r = 2 = 0.78). After deducting climate change factors, the remuneration for improving crop management and breeding has always been higher than the compensation for the increase in actual production in the basin.