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针对按订单装配式的产品供应链,考虑其上游的多个供应商不确定地零部件供应以及下游消费者价值的不确定性,在分散决策、集中决策以及制造商在线预售策略等三种模型下,比较分析了制造商和零售商各自的订单决策及期望利润的影响。通过对预售模型进行证明推导和数值仿真,研究结果表明:制造商在线预售优于集中决策和分散决策,但会损害零售商的利益。零售商对预售的反应策略是反直觉的:预售折扣越大、随之预售量越大,零售商反而事后通过折扣来最大化期望利润;消费者价值的趋同性越小,零售商越有涨价的动机。
According to the order-based product supply chain, taking into account the uncertain supply of parts and components and the downstream consumer value uncertainty of multiple suppliers upstream, three kinds of strategies are considered, such as decentralized decision-making, centralized decision-making and manufacturer online pre-sale strategy Model, a comparative analysis of the manufacturer and retailer respective order decisions and the expected profit impact. By proving and simulating the presale model, the results show that manufacturers' online pre-sale is superior to centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making, but will damage the interests of retailers. The retailer's reaction strategy to pre-sale is counterintuitive: the greater the pre-sale discount, the greater the pre-sale volume, and the retailer later maximizes the expected profit through discounts. The smaller the consumer's value, the retailer The more price increases motivation.