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以在变电站快速评估保护动作、断路器动作等报警情况寻求故障原因为目标,根据电网与变电站结构、保护原理,为站内各元件建立4层结构的分层因果规则推理网,包括故障源层、故障候选原因层、保护动作层、断路器动作层。建立各层之间的因果关系,为一个故障的各候选原因赋予不同的引发概率。将故障候选原因的一条可达路径分为候选原因到保护动作、保护动作到断路器跳闸两阶段,给它们赋予不同的可信度贡献率。当故障发生时,计算某候选原因各条可达路径的可信度,采用平均法获得其综合可信度,对疑似故障源各候选原因的可信度进行排序和评估,以获得故障元件及其原因。该评估方法计算量小,能快速准确地找到可信度高的故障元件及其原因。通过多个算例验证了该方法的有效性和容错性。
According to the principle of grid and substation structure and protection, a four-layer hierarchical causal rule reasoning network is established for each component in the station, including fault source layer, Fault candidate layer, protective action layer, circuit breaker action layer. Establish causal relationships between layers and assign different probabilities of probabilities for each of the candidate causes of a failure. A reachable route of the cause of the fault is divided into two reasons, that is, the candidate cause, the protection action, and the protection action to the breaker trip, and gives them different contribution rates of credibility. When a fault occurs, calculate the credibility of each reachable route of a candidate cause, obtain the comprehensive credibility by the averaging method, and rank and assess the credibility of each candidate cause of the suspected fault source to obtain the faulty component and The reason. The evaluation method is less computationally intensive and can quickly and accurately find out the faulty components with high credibility and their causes. Several examples are used to verify the effectiveness and fault tolerance of this method.