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第二季度7.6%的增长应该是正常的平稳的增长速度,是“水分”较少的增长速度。平稳的通胀环境显示,全年经济增长不会大起大落国家统计局日前发布的数据称,今年第二季度经济增长为7.6%,略高于年初全国两会设定的7.5%的年增长目标。通过分析增速的驱动力,我们认为,这个7.6%的增长是水分较少的增长率,是在潜在增长水平区间内的增长率,是正常的。首先,7.6%的增速充分对称了外需萎缩的信息,也充分反映了全球经济态势。其次,7.6%的增速是房地产投资回落至社会平均投资增长水平后的经济增长速度。是房地产投资增长从最高37%回落到18%时,社会平均投资增长水平接近的经济增长水平,是剔除了不合理的驱动力以后的增长水平,是更
The second quarter 7.6% growth should be normal and steady growth rate, is “moisture ” less growth rate. The stable inflation environment shows that there will be no ups and downs in annual economic growth. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the economic growth in the second quarter of this year was 7.6%, slightly higher than the annual growth target of 7.5% set by the two sessions earlier this year. By analyzing the drivers of growth, we think this 7.6% growth is the rate of growth of less water, a growth rate in the range of potential growth, which is normal. First of all, the 7.6% growth rate fully symmetrical information on the shrinking external demand and fully reflected the global economic situation. Second, the growth rate of 7.6% is the economic growth rate after real estate investment has dropped to the level of average investment in society. Is the real estate investment growth fell from the highest 37% to 18%, the average level of social investment growth is close to the level of economic growth, excluding the irrational driving force after the growth rate is more