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应用可拓论、概率论和有关泥石流的专业知识，提出了一种泥石流预报减灾的两层决策模式。文中首先论述了泥石流预报中各种非确定性因素，然后介绍了用简单关联函数确定减灾对策偏好度的方法，最后建立了泥石流预报减灾决策的物元模型。
Applying the theory of extenics, probability theory and debris flow expertise, a two-layer decision-making model of debris flow hazard reduction is proposed. Firstly, the paper discusses various non-deterministic factors in debris flow forecast, and then introduces a simple correlation function to determine the preference of disaster mitigation strategies. Finally, a matter-element model of debris flow disaster reduction decision-making is established.