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为了分析大变形隧洞工程中存在的不确定性,用模糊概率法研究高地应力下大变形隧洞的稳定概率.采用模糊随机方法,推导出大变形隧洞稳定的模糊概率模型,模型中将围岩容许变形量作为随机变量,并假设随机变量服从正态分布,隶属函数取简化的线性分布.结合乌鞘岭隧洞F7断层带软岩隧洞工程,利用曲线回归和模糊概率对隧洞围岩稳定性进行计算分析.计算结果表明,开挖后第18天,左线隧洞,边墙稳定概率为15.2%,拱部稳定概率为99.1%,倾向于失稳状态;右线隧洞,边墙稳定概率为95.5%,拱部稳定概率为100%,隧洞比较稳定.模糊概率法考虑到工程中的随机性和模糊性,较确定性方法更加合理,有助于反映隧洞稳定性发展趋势.
In order to analyze the uncertainty existing in large deformation tunnel project, the probabilistic method is used to study the stability probability of large deformation tunnel under high ground stress. The fuzzy probability model of large deformation tunnel is derived by fuzzy random method. The deformation is taken as a random variable, and the random variable is assumed to be normal distribution and the membership function is simplified linear distribution.Combining the soft rock tunnel project of F8 fault with Wushaoling tunnel, the stability of tunnel surrounding rock is calculated by curve regression and fuzzy probability The results show that on the 18th day after excavation, the stability probability of the left-hand tunnel and side wall is 15.2% and the stability probability of the arch is 99.1%, which tends to be unstable. The stability probability of right-side tunnel and side wall is 95.5% , The stability probability of the arch is 100% and the tunnel is relatively stable.Fuzzy probability method takes into account the randomness and fuzziness in the project, which is more reasonable than the deterministic method and helps to reflect the trend of the tunnel stability.