洪水预报是重要的防汛非工程措施之一。通过分析怀柔水库建库以来历次较大洪水,以降雨径流经验相关法的原理为基础,利用统计方法,导出降雨量、降雨强度及前期土壤湿度与径流系数和洪峰流量的关系,进行现状洪水的总量和洪峰流量预报。分析表明:影响怀柔水库流域产流的主要因素为前期土壤湿度和降雨强度,当前期土壤湿度较小时,受前期土壤湿度控制作用较强:影响洪峰流量的主要因素为降雨量、降雨强度和前期土壤湿度:当前期土壤较湿润时,洪峰流量主要受降雨量和降雨强度控制;同样的降雨条件和前期土壤湿度下,现状洪水的径流系数和洪峰流量均小于历史洪水。不断完善洪水预报方法,可为洪水调度决策提高效率。 Flood forecasting is one of the important flood control non-engineering measures. Based on the principle of empirical correlation law of rainfall runoff, the paper analyzes the relationship between rainfall, rainfall intensity and the relationship between the former soil moisture and runoff coefficient and flood peak flow through the analysis of past floods in Huairou Reservoir. Total and peak flow forecast. The analysis shows that the main factors that affect the runoff in Huairou Reservoir are the early soil moisture and rainfall intensity. When the soil moisture is low at the current period, the control of soil moisture is strong. The main factors affecting flood peak flow are rainfall, rainfall intensity, Soil Moisture: When the current soil is wet, the peak flow is mainly controlled by rainfall and rainfall intensity. Under the same rainfall conditions and pre-soil moisture, the runoff coefficient and peak flow of the current flood are less than the historical flood. Continuously improve the flood forecasting method can improve the efficiency of flood control decision-making.