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利用气象资料和长期定位试验数据,采用一阶差分和多元回归分析方法,研究玉米产量波动与气候变化的关系,从而分离玉米产量变化中的气候效应,评价气候变化对东北地区春玉米生产的影响。结果表明:东北地区春玉米区域气候变暖趋势明显,玉米主要生长季节(5～9月)平均最高气温和最低气温每10年分别上升0.6℃和0.8℃,生长季气候变化因素(最高温度、最低温度和降雨量)可以解释近30%玉米产量的变化;玉米产量变化与生长季节平均最高温度变化呈显著负相关,最高温度每上升1℃导致玉米产量降低14%;最低温度和降雨量的变化与产量变化无显著相关关系。
Using meteorological data and long-term experiment data, the first-order difference and multiple regression analysis methods were used to study the relationship between fluctuations of maize yield and climate change, so as to separate the climatic effects in the change of corn yield and evaluate the impact of climate change on spring maize production in northeast China . The results showed that the trend of climate warming in spring maize region was obvious in northeast China. The average maximum temperature and minimum temperature in maize growth season increased by 0.6 ℃ and 0.8 ℃ every 10 years in main growing season (May-September), and the climatic change factors (highest temperature, Minimum temperature and rainfall) could explain nearly 30% of the changes in corn yield. There was a significant negative correlation between the changes of corn yield and the average maximum temperature during the growing season. When the maximum temperature increased by 1 ℃, the yield of corn decreased by 14%. The minimum temperature and rainfall There was no significant correlation between changes and yield changes.